Prospect Countdown: #10 Alfredo Silverio
Born May 6, 1987 in La Romana, DR. Signed November 13, 2003. Listed at 6' and 205 lbs. Bats and throws right-handed.
Fredo began his professional career in 2004 shortly after turning 17, hitting just .240/.273/.303 in 59 games for the Dominican Summer League Dodgers. He didn't improve much in his second season, batting .244/.316/.305 in 25 games. 2006 was his breakout year, as he hit .276/.335/.462 in 61 contests. He also belted 12 doubles, 6 triples and 6 home runs. He also stole 6 bases. That finally earned him a trip stateside.
In 2007, he debuted with the Gulf Coast Dodgers and crushed the ball. He hit .373 to lead the league and placed 7th with a .950 OPS. He hit 9 doubles, 3 triples and 6 homers while stealing 5 bases. He spent 41 games in left field and only got 16 chances in center and right.
Silverio made his full season debut in 2008 with the Great Lakes Loons and struggled, hitting .263/.279/.404 with just 7 walks in 95 games. He did manage to hit 10 homers but was simply too impatient to make an impact. He improved the following season and batted .284/.320/.457 with 13 home runs and 34 doubles (tied for 6th in the league). That performance got him a promotion to High A, where he continued to hit well, posting a line of .292/.324/.486 with 27 doubles, 9 triples and 12 home runs. He got a late season call to Chattanooga but collected just 1 hit in 16 at bats.
2011 was Alfredo's best year since his American debut. He batted .306/.340/.542 with 42 doubles, 18 triples and 16 homers. He stole 11 bases but was caught 12 times. He played all three outfield positions, spending most of his time in center and racked up an impressive 19 assists. Baseball America ranked him as the 12th best prospect in the Southern League and the 4th best prospect in the Dodgers' system.
Silverio has made strides since signing. All five of his tools rank at least average, with his power standing out above the rest. He shows plenty of bat speed, whipping the bat through the zone and driving the ball into the gaps. He showed off his power in the Futures Game during All Star weekend, crushing a ball into the left field seats in Chase Field. He racked up 76 extra base hits, just 5 behind Angelo Songco for the Dodgers' minor league lead.
What improved most about Fredo's game in 2011 was his approach at the plate. He still doesn't walk much, drawing just 30 free passes in 572 plate appearances. However, he was lauded for his plate discipline last season. Jacksonville Suns' manager Andrew Barkett said, "You have to make good pitches to get him out."
Defensively, he's spent considerable time in all three outfield spots, seeing most action last year in center. However, he profiles best in a corner where his arm strength would be sufficient for right. An aggressive baserunner, he really needs to improve his stealing ability after being caught in more than half his attempts.
Average. This is something new for me. While some scouting reports seem too good to be true, I thought I'd contextualize by giving my honest opinion of how certain I am that a given prospect will succeed. Highly ranked prospects won't necessarily have a high confidence rating, since there's a chance of a fluke season or playing above one's ability.
With Silverio, I'm skeptical of his ability to produce at the major league level due to his lack of on base ability. He's never walked much and would have to depend on a high batting average in order to prevent making too many outs. While his swing is geared more to power, he does make a good amount of contact and should hit for decent average.
He has enough all around ability to be a productive player. His power helps a little bit to offset the lack of OBP and he should play good defense in an outfield corner. If Alfredo doesn't stick as a starter, he'd make a quality backup, capable of filling in at all three outfield positions.
There's a very outside chance of Silverio making the big club out of spring training and he's almost sure to start 2012 in Albuquerque. Given his versatility, he has a great chance of finding his way in the show were injury or underperformance to open a window. The prospect of Ethier and/or Loney leaving via free agency in 2013 would give Alfredo an opportunity to claim a vacated position.
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